Department of Economics and Geography

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Alternatives to local content requirements in resource-rich countries
(Oxford Development Studies, 2017-12) Kinyondo, Abel; Kolstad, Ivar
This paper discusses whether and to what extent resource-rich developing countries should introduce local content policies, i.e. requirements to include local inputs in petroleum extraction activities of multinational corporations. We argue that local content needs to be seen as a public expenditure question, since local content requirements increase multinational costs, and hence reduce the taxes which can be extracted from these companies. This implies that there are opportunity costs in imposing local content requirements, since the forgone taxes can be used in others ways which could potentially do more to improve development prospects. Moreover, past experiences of resource-rich developing countries suggest that local content policies can exacerbate key problems of patronage and rent-seeking which resource rents generate, increasing the chance that the resource wealth will prevent rather than help development. These arguments suggest that an optimal local content policy in the context of flawed institutions is a more limited one than those typically pursued by developing countries with recently discovered petroleum reserves. Using qualitative data from Tanzania, a country with recent discoveries of substantial natural gas deposits, we analyze why local content tends to become such a central issue in debates and policy processes, despite its potentially problematic aspects.
Benchmarks for Codes of Conduct
(The Parliamentarian., 2015) Coghill, Ken; Kinyondo, Abel
Parliamentary Codes of Conduct and Ethics are increasingly used by parliaments, both national and provincial or state, to regulate the behaviour of members. Bench-marking them then becomes a crucial matters. This work suggests ways to do exactly that.
Can Smallholders benefit from the new market opportunities from the extractive industry in Tanzania?
(Chr. Michelsen Institute, 2018-05) Kinyondo, Abel; Sosina, Bezu; Espen, Villanger
The recent discovery of huge oil and gas reserves in Tanzania has created a new opportunity for economic growth and development of the country. Tanzania is expected to be one of the leading producers and exporters of natural gas in the coming decade. However, 88 percent of poor Tanzanians live in rural areas and two-third of the labour force is engaged in agriculture. For the extractive industry to serve as a catalyst for economic growth and poverty reduction, it has to be integrated with the rest of the economy through forward and backward linkages. One such linkage is food supply from agriculture. The projected boom in the extractive industry will open up new market opportunities for farmers to supply food items for high value buyers such as caterers, restaurants, supermarkets and processors. However, to benefit from rapidly expanding high-end food markets, farmers need to have both the capacity and the incentives to supply their produce at the desired quantity and quality. Currently significant portion of the new demand is already being filled by imported goods. This report discusses the opportunities for and challenges of integrating farmers into high-end food markets.
The Cost of Party System Change: The Case of Tanzania
(Lambert Academic Publishing, 2017) Kinyondo, Abel; Nwokora, Zim; Pelizzo, Riccardo
The Costs of Party System Change: The Case of Tanzania
(SelectedWorks, 2015-08-21) Pelizzo, Riccardo; Kinyondo, Abel; Nwokora, Zim
As Tanzanians prepare to go to the polls and the country awaits an election that could mark the end of the CCM rule, potentially ushering in dramatic change in the Tanzanian party system, analysing the relationship between the changeability of the Tanzanian party system and the various aspects of the Tanzanian democracy is both timely and valuable. This is so for at least two reasons. First, such an analysis provides a basis for assessing whether and to what extent the political consequences of party system change in Tanzania are similar to the observations made by Nwokora and Pelizzo (2015) for the South East Asian region. By doing so, we are also able to make a contribution to the comparative study of the consequences of party system change—a topic which, as Nwokora and Pelizzo (2015) reported, has not been adequately covered in the literature. Secondly, such an analysis can also enable us to make some tentative, but educated, guesses as to what may happen in Tanzania if, as many observers have repeatedly predicted, the Presidential elections of next October mark the end of the CCM’s rule.
Determinants of loan repayment performance in microcredit institutions: Evidence from Tanzania
(Asia-African Journal of Economics and Econometrics, 2009) Kinyondo, Abel; Okurut, Nathan
This study investigated the key factors that influence loan repayment performance among group clients of microcredit institutions (MFIs) in Tanzania. This was motivated by the fact that sustainability of MFIs is critical for poverty reduction among the poor through sustainable access to credit. Sustainability of microcredit institutions is greatly influenced by the loan repayment performance of their clients. High repayment rates enable MFIs to recover interest income and minimize loan losses which enhance profits. In turn, these profits enhance the capital base which enables microcredit institutions to increase their outreach and reduce their dependence on donors. The study was based on a sample of 150 respondents from PRIDE and FINCA in Kariakoo Division, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The logit model regression results suggest that experience, training time, and sanctions have positive and significant effects on loan repayment performance among group clients of MFIs. However transaction costs and group size have negative and significant effects on loan repayment performance. The policy options to improve loan repayment performance among group clients of MFIs in Tanzania include: encouraging long term relationship with groups (i.e. client retention), adequate training of groups, establishing lasting social sanctions within the groups and by the microcredit institutions, cutting down transaction costs incurred by groups and encouraging more coordination amongst MFIs through the creation of a credit reference bureau.
Determinants of Public Health Expenditure Growth in Tanzania: An Application of Bayesian Model
(African Journal of Economic Review, 2018-01) Kinyondo, Abel; Byaro, Mwoya; Musonda, Patrick; Michello, Charles
This paper identifies some major drivers of per capita public health expenditure growth in Tanzania using nationally representative annual data between 1995 and 2014. It used Bayesian model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. The empirical result shows that both the real GDP per capita and population age 65 years and older exert a positive effect on per capita public health expenditure growth in Tanzania. Advances in medical technologies represented by life expectancy seem to reduce real per capita public health expenditure growth in Tanzania. However, the credible intervals for life expectancy and population age 65 years and older are very wide suggesting a lot of uncertainty with these estimates. The results imply that, future trends in per capita public health spending would mainly depend on the development of the economy such as real per capita gross domestic product. The result suggests the rapid growth in real per capita public health expenditure is likely to continue in future when the country economy becomes more robust and increase of population age 65 years and above.
Development in Africa
(World Affairs, 2018-10-19) Kinyondo, Abel; Riccardo, Pelizzo; Nwokora, Zim
The purpose of this article is to analyze Africa’s progress along the developmental path in the past few decades, to understand what factors were responsible for such success and to identify the risk factors that may compromise further development in the region in the years to come. We advance three basic claims: that Africa has experienced an almost unprecedented (by its standards) level of economic success in the first 15 years of the new millennium, that this success was made possible by a combination of domestic and supranational conditions, and that some of the enabling conditions that supported Africa’s growth and development in the new millennium may be disappearing. The study also suggests that while African countries may not be able to influence the global conditions on which their economic success depends, they do have the ability to influence the domestic conditions. This is why, we suggest, in addition to ensuring longer and healthier lives for their citizens, African countries should consolidate democracy and promote good governance.
Economic Growth and Under-Five Malaria Mortality in Tanzania Mainland: From Correlation Analysis to Causality
(International Journal of Health, 2017) Kinyondo, Abel; Byaro, Mwoya; Musonda, Patrick
This paper establishes empirical evidence related with correlation and causality between economic growth (as measured by GDP per capita) and under-five malaria mortality in Tanzania Mainland. The goal is to contribute knowledge on the existing relationship between economic growth and under-five malaria mortality. Correlation and scatter regression analysis plot were employed to find out the relationship among the (GDP per Capita), Insecticides Treated Nets (ITNs) distributed, Human Resources (physicians and nurses) and under-five malaria mortality from the year 2004 to 2015. Moreover, Granger Causality test was applied to test the causal link between the economic growth and under-five malaria Mortality. The economic growth (as measured by GDP per Capita) and number of ITNs distributed under various malaria campaigns have significant unidirectional causality to under-five malaria mortality while there is no causality evidence between human resource for health (physicians and nurses) and under-five malaria mortality despite the observed correlation relationship. Since economic growth and ITNs have unidirectional causal link with under-five malaria mortality, it implies that any changes in GDP per Capita and ITNs will change under-five malaria mortality. The researchers and policy makers need to gather more evidence on ITNs and economic growth to assess the risk of under-five malaria mortality to inform decision making.
Enhancing rural livelihoods in Tanzania: A small-holder farmers’ perspective
(International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies, 2017) Kinyondo, Abel; Magashi, Joseph
Poverty reduction has been a difficult milestone for Tanzania to achieve despite recording remarkable economic growth over the past decade. This is because the attained growth is not inclusive, in that sectors contributing to this growth employ fewer people. Given the fact that agriculture continues to employ the majority of people in Tanzania, efforts to improve livelihoods should necessarily be geared towards transforming the sector. It is in this context that using a sample of 3,000 farmers from 13 regions of Tanzania; this Tanzania, this study set out to examine challenges facing farmers and their respective solutions following the sustainable livelihood framework. Findings show that improving farmers’ livelihoods would entail concerted efforts by the government to avail to farmers, quality and affordable seeds, fertilizer, agricultural infrastructures, subsidies, extension services, markets, information alert, affordable loans, and areas for pastures. This implies that the government needs to allocate enough funds to the agricultural sector if farmers’ needs are to be met. We note, however, that government’s allocation to the sector has alarmingly generally been exhibiting a declining trend for the past four years. It is against this background that we strongly recommend that the government rethinks its position and prioritize the agricultural sector in its budget.
A Functionalist Theory of Oversight
(Lambert Academic Publishing, 2017) Kinyondo, Abel; Pelizzo, Riccardo; Umar, A
The functions of Parliament: reality challenges tradition
(Australasian Parliamentary Review, 2012) Kinyondo, Abel; Coghill, Ken; Lewis, Colleen; Holland, Peter; Steinack, K
The functions of parliaments have been variously described by scholars and in parliamentary documents but there have been few, if any, reported studies of how parliamentary practitioners see their own institutions. This paper reports practitioner perceptions of contemporary functions of fifteen selected national legislatures. The research is embedded in a wider project on parliamentary careers that looks at a total of 60 national parliaments. It investigates what knowledge, skills and abilities assist MPs in successfully fulfilling their responsibilities, the nature and content of professional development programs available to MPs and the effect these programs have on enhancing knowledge, skills and abilities.2 The responsibilities of MPs relate to the functions of the parliamentary chamber to which they have been elected. Hence, for consistency reasons, the research focused only on national parliaments.
Governance in Africa
(Lambert Academic Publishing, 2017) Pelizzo, Riccardo; Kinyondo, Abel
Good governance matters. Or at least this is what scholars and practitioners have been saying for nearly twenty years. The studies included in this volume are devoted to developing a better understanding of governance and good governance in Africa, its causes, its consequences and the ways in which good governance can be enhanced in the region. In doing so some attention is paid to how African problems can be addressed and possibly resolved by African solutions.
Growth, Employment, Poverty and Inequality in Tanzania
(Africology: Journal of Pan African Studies, 2018-02) Kinyondo, Abel; Pelizzo, Riccardo
This paper shows that in Tanzania, economic growth contributes to job creation and employment opportunities, however, it does very little to curb income inequality. Using official data from various local sources compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics and international the paper provides an explanation for why the creation of wealth and employment opportunities in Tanzania fails to bring the level of poverty to a level roughly comparable to what is found in the region to reduce inequality between the richer and the poorer segments of society.
How should Tanzania use its natural gas? Citizens’ views from a nationwide deliberative poll
(International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, 2017) Birdsall, N; Fishkin, J; Haqqi, F; Kinyondo, Abel; Moyo, M; Richmond, J; Sandefur, J
Public opinion is often treated as an obstacle to good governance in resource-rich developing countries, associated with populist policies and excess consumption. Can ordinary citizens in a low-income democracy make meaningful judgements about complex resource management issues? We report on a nationwide poll of voting-age adults in Tanzania, where large natural gas reserves were recently discovered. Results from a randomized experiment within our nationwide polling sample show that the combination of information and extended, structured, and participatory deliberation generated (i) a measurable increase in knowledge of the gas sector; (ii) increased support for sale of natural gas and reduced support for energy subsidies; (iii) no change in support for saving versus spending gas revenues; (iv) a sharp decline in support for direct cash distribution of resource rents to citizens; (v) increased support for spending on social services as opposed to infrastructure; and (vi) a marginally significant increase in support for transparency and oversight measures. Democratic deliberation appears to be the key to these changes; the information treatment alone produced no significant impacts, and impacts did not spill over onto individuals in the same community who did not participate in deliberation. As part of a second-order experiment to measure public accountability, we provided the citizens’ polling results to elites before polling them on a subset of the same questions. Our analysis indicates that elites demonstrate a tendency to align their views with public opinion on most major issues.
In Quest of Inclusive Growth: Exploring the Nexus between Economic Growth, Employment and Poverty in Tanzania
(REPOA, 2014) Islam, R; Kinyondo, Abel
Tanzania’s impressive economic growth during the past decade has not resulted in significant poverty reduction. It is in that context that this study seeks to analyze the nexus between economic growth, employment and poverty in a manner that contributes to the understanding of how the rate poverty reduction can be accelerated. The paper presents a framework for the analysis of the nexus between economic growth, employment and poverty reduction and attempts an application of that framework. The key to the analytical framework is growth of employment in relation to output growth and structural transformation of employment towards sectors and activities with higher productivity so that output growth translates into higher incomes of the poor. Given the limitations of data in Tanzania and the broad scope of the analytical framework mentioned above, its application in the present paper remains limited, partial, and exploratory. While the change in the structure of employment has been very small, the elasticity of employment with respect to output growth has been rather low. The incidence of poverty is linked to the type and sector of employment: poverty being higher amongst those in agriculture and in self-employment. Among the self-employed, those without any additional employee have a higher incidence of poverty compared to those with some employees. Econometric analyses of factors influencing labour force participation show that variables such as age and marital status have positive impact on participation regardless of gender. Households in rural areas show higher participation in the labour force compared to their urban counterparts. However, contrary to a priori expectations, the influence of education is found to be statistically insignificant
Legislative Capacity Building: Pacific Case Studies
(Springer International Publishing, 2016) Kinyondo, Abel
Local content requirements in the petroleum sector in Tanzania: A thorny road from inception to implementation?
(The Extractive Industries and Society, 2017) Kinyondo, Abel; Villanger, Espen
Tanzania has recently discovered huge offshore natural gas fields. This has led the Government to develop local content policies (LCPs) to increase job and business opportunities for nationals in the sector. We study the process behind the development of these policies and the positions of stakeholders. We find that although there is a positive view among domestic stakeholders of imposing such policies, there is much suspicion—to such a degree that it shapes their recommendations of which policies to include in the LCP. One reason is that the Government monopolized the policy development process and abstained from conducting a consultative process. Our findings suggest that future Tanzanian policy development should include in-depth consultations to maximize the decision maker’s knowledge base, add to the transparency of the process and manage expectations. This would also contribute to effective implementation and lessen tensions, conflicts and suspicion among stakeholders.
Making Tourism Work for Tanzania.
(Lambert Academic Publishing, 2018) Pelizzo, Riccardo; Kinyondo, Abel
The tourism industry in Tanzania has experienced an extraordinary growth over the years. The success of the industry is hardly surprising. Few destinations worldwide can compete with what Tanzania has to offer. But tourism is a very competitive industry. Destinations rise and decline. The tourism hot spots of the 1950s were entirely forgotten by the would. The top destinations of the late would had fallen into oblivion by the end of 1990s. Some destinations that enjoyed some considerable success at the beginning of the new millennium had already been supplanted by the beginning of the 2010s. It is in this context that Tanzania's tourism industry has to be shaped in a manner that can withstand such cyclic eventuality. "Making Tourism Work for Tanzania" is a book that offers recommendations that could help the industry not only grow sustainable but also become beneficial to all Tanzanians.
No correlation between health care expenditure and mortality in the European Union
(European Journal of Internal Medicine, 2018-09) Mwoya, Byaro; Abel, Kinyondo
The correlation analysis in time series has received considerable attention. Its use plays an important role in the social sciences, finance and medical sciences. Spearman's or Pearson correlation coefficients are the most commonly used for estimation. The assumption such as stationarity makes the validity of time series correlation coefficients.

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