An Eco-epidemiological Model for Newcastle Disease in Central Zone of Tanzania
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Date
2017
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Inder Science Publishers
Abstract
Newcastle disease is contagious bird disease which affects main domestic and wild avian
species. A deterministic compartmental model for Newcastle disease (ND) is developed and analysed using ordinary differential equation theory. The uncertainties of model parameters were therefore examined using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations for the data of chicken death cases due to Newcastle disease from five districts in two regions in Tanzania. The parameter distribution was tested using MCMC convergence diagnostics. The graphical diagnostic test for MCMC used include Trace plots or time series plot, two-dimensional parameter plots and autocorrelation function plots. Hence, model parameters were successfully estimated for numerical simulations and the results of simulations were presented.
Description
Accepted
Keywords
Eco-epidemiology; Newcastle Disease; Parameter estimation