Mapping Socio-Economic Scenarios of Land Cover Change: A GIS Method to Enable Ecosystem Service Modelling
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Date
2011
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative
map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land
cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalised these as spatially explicit
rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover
map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the
Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development,
the second based on ‘business as usual’ with continued forestewoodland degradation and poor
protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the
first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the
impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if
payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem
services
Description
Keywords
Carbon, Ecosystem services, GIS, Scenarios, Spatial modelling, Tanzania
Citation
Swetnam, R.D., Fisher, B., Mbilinyi, B.P., Munishi, P.K.T., Willcock, S., Ricketts, T., Mwakalila, S., Balmford, A., Burgess, N.D., Marshall, A.R. and Lewis, S.L., 2011. Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: A GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling. Journal of environmental management, 92(3), pp.563-574.