Browsing by Author "Oluwole, Daniel Makinde"

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    An Eco-epidemiological Model for Newcastle Disease in Central Zone of Tanzania
    (Inder Science Publishers, 2017) Hugo, Alfred; Oluwole, Daniel Makinde; Kumar, Santosh
    Newcastle disease is contagious bird disease which affects main domestic and wild avian species. A deterministic compartmental model for Newcastle disease (ND) is developed and analysed using ordinary differential equation theory. The uncertainties of model parameters were therefore examined using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations for the data of chicken death cases due to Newcastle disease from five districts in two regions in Tanzania. The parameter distribution was tested using MCMC convergence diagnostics. The graphical diagnostic test for MCMC used include Trace plots or time series plot, two-dimensional parameter plots and autocorrelation function plots. Hence, model parameters were successfully estimated for numerical simulations and the results of simulations were presented.
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    Optimal Control and Cost Effectiveness Analysis for Newcastle Disease Eco- Epidemiological Model in Tanzania
    (Taylor & Francis-J. Biological Dynamics, 2016) Hugo, Alfred; Oluwole, Daniel Makinde; Kumar, Santosh; Fred, Chibwana
    In this paper, a deterministic compartmental eco- epidemiological model with optimal control of Newcastle disease (ND) in Tanzania is proposed and analysed. Necessary conditions of optimal control problem were rigorously analysed using Pontryagin’s maximum principle and the numerical values of model parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimator. Three control strategies were incorporated such as chicken vaccination (preventive), human education campaign and treatment of infected human (curative) and its’ impact were graphically observed. The incremental cost effectiveness analysis technique used to determine the most cost effectiveness strategy and we observe that combination of chicken vaccination and human education campaign strategy is the best strategy to implement in limited resources. Therefore,NDcan be controlled if the farmers will apply chicken vaccination properly and well in time.