Uncertain Hydrological Modelling: Application of the Pitman Model in the Great Ruaha River Basin, Tanzania

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dc.contributor.authorTumbo, Madaka
dc.contributor.authorHughes, D. A.
dc.date.accessioned2016-05-26T09:11:10Z
dc.date.available2016-05-26T09:11:10Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractUncertainty analysis has become the standard approach to hydrological modelling, but has yet to be effectively used in practical water resources assessment. This study of the Great Ruaha River basin in Tanzania is based on the use of regional estimates of mean runoff, groundwater recharge and three flow points on flow duration curves (FDCs) to constrain ensemble outputs from the Pitman monthly model using Monte Carlo parameter sampling. The constraint bounds were quantified from gauged data available for 26 sub-basins together with assumptions about the spatial variations in hydrological response using limited physical sub-basin property and climate data. The results are encouraging in that the simulated FDC ranges bracket the observed curves at two gauging stations downstream of many ungauged sub-basins that are important sites for water resources development decision making. Further work is required to refine the constraint bounds, the input parameter sets and climate data and achieve a more robust model of the basin.en_US
dc.identifier.citationTumbo, M. and Hughes, D.A., 2015. Uncertain hydrological modelling: application of the Pitman model in the Great Ruaha River basin, Tanzania. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(11), pp.2047-2061.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/02626667.2015.1016948
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11810/2257
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherTaylor and Francisen_US
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_US
dc.subjectHydrological modellingen_US
dc.subjectSouthern Africaen_US
dc.subjectHydrological constraintsen_US
dc.titleUncertain Hydrological Modelling: Application of the Pitman Model in the Great Ruaha River Basin, Tanzaniaen_US
dc.typeJournal Article, Peer Revieweden_US
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