Networks, Epidemics and Vaccination through Contact Tracing
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Date
2008
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
We consider a (social) network whose structure can be represented by a simple random
graph having a pre-specified degree distribution. A Markovian SIR epidemic
model is defined on such a social graph. We then consider two real-time vaccination
models for contact tracing during the early stages of an epidemic outbreak. The
first model considers vaccination of each friend of an infectious individual (once
identified) independently with probability ρ. The second model is related to the
first model but also sets a bound on the maximum number an infectious individual
can infect before being identified. Expressions are derived for the influence on the
reproduction number of these vaccination models. We give some numerical examples
and simulation results based on the Poisson and heavy-tail degree distributions
where it is shown that the second vaccination model has a bigger advantage compared
to the first model for the heavy-tail degree distribution.
Description
Keywords
Contact tracing, Degree distribution, Delay time, Epidemic model, Reproduction number, Networks, Vaccination model
Citation
Shaban, N., Andersson, M., Svensson, Å. and Britton, T., 2008. Networks, epidemics and vaccination through contact tracing. Mathematical biosciences, 216(1), pp.1-8.