Review Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa

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dc.contributor.authorTonnang, Henri E. Z.
dc.contributor.authorKangalawe, Richard Y. M.
dc.contributor.authorYanda, Pius Z.
dc.date.accessioned2016-03-11T07:40:56Z
dc.date.available2016-03-11T07:40:56Z
dc.date.issued2010-04-23
dc.descriptionFull text available at http://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1475-2875-9-111en_US
dc.description.abstractMalaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.en_US
dc.identifier.citationTonnang, H.E., Kangalawe, R.Y. and Yanda, P.Z., 2010. Review Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa. Malaria Journal, 9, pp.1-10.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/1475-2875-9-111
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/850
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherMalaria Journalen_US
dc.subjectMalariaen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectAfricaen_US
dc.titleReview Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africaen_US
dc.typeJournal Article, Peer Revieweden_US
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