ASSESSMENT OF TRADITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS APPLIED TO RAINFALL FORECASTING IN ROMBO DISTRICT, TANZANIA
Loading...
Date
2016
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Accurate rainfall forecasting enables rural communities to make informed, timely and effective decisions on their farming activities presumably leading to increased productivity. As such, a more appropriate, accessible and user friendly rainfall forecasting methods and information is needed. This study was conducted to assess efficacy of the traditional environmental knowledge systems applied to rainfall forecasting in Rombo District, Tanzania for sustainable climate change adaptation. Triangulation of data collection methods were used to obtain diverse and detailed information. Out of 611 interviewees, 44.2% could forecast rainfall using environmental indicators (EIs) of whom 75.5% were unable to forecast beyond a week. It was somewhat difficult to judge the reliability of some EIs in forecasting rainfall because the same indicator was rated differently by different respondents, as very reliable, reliable, not reliable and no longer reliable. Although half of the respondents anticipated a decrease in rainfall, forecasting from Global Climate Models revealed the opposite. The study recommends a multidisciplinary approach and sharing of knowledge and information for effective rainfall forecasting.
Description
Keywords
Climate change adaptation, Environmental indicator, Global Climate Model, Rainfall forecast, Traditional environmental knowledge systems