Review of Pre-feasibility Study: Main Report and Financial Model on the Mtwara Common User Quay Facility Project for Oil and Gas Supply Base Project
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Date
2015
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Dar Es Salaam Consultancy Bureau
Abstract
This report contains views on the Pre-feasibility Study Report by AECOM on the proposed Mtwara Common User Quay Facility Project for Oil and Gas Supply Base. The review was undertaken by a multi-disciplinary team of experts ranging from port engineering, transportation planning and engineering to economics and marketing.
The concept design is in principle applicable, but for the case of Mtwara, it should be supported by appropriate geotechnical information, met-ocean data and other factors mentioned in the relevant sections of this report.
The financial model proposed in the pre-feasibility study is at a very early stage and only provides basic outlook of the economic and financial viability of the project. As noted in the supplementary notes “… [Themodel] has been developed for the purpose of sensitivity testing and to provide and [sic] baseline for adjustments and future assumptions”. The report is clear about the depth of the contents of the model by giving a caveat that “... [The] model should not be relied upon for budget or business case purposes”. It is our view that the caveat be taken seriously and cannot therefore be relied upon.
As for Traffic forecast: A thorough review of the Market Assessment Report reveals no forecast model is presented as purported in the main report, instead traffic forecasts are presented.
As for the Concession Strategy, the build-own-operate-and-transfer (BOOT) is recommended. Monitoring mechanisms need to be in place to ensure the quality of the assets agreed by the parties is upheld from construction to the end of the concession period. At the same time, proponents of the project should adhere to the National Public Private Partnership (PPP) Policy (2009), the Public Private Partnership (PPP) Act (2010), as well as the PPP Operational Guidelines for Tanzania Mainland (2010) and PPP Regulations (2011).
Overall, information contained in the report is very course and hence it is recommended that a proper pre-feasibility study be conducted.
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Keywords
Pre-feasibility, Common User Quay Facility