Challenges of Modeling the Flows of the Nile River
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Date
2005-11-14
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Dar Es Salaam
Abstract
Perceptions and realities of water and conflict in basins such as the Nile vary widely. The
river continues to be brought into debates about “water wars” by writers on the subject. One
of the major problems with the “water wars” thesis is that it includes only a cursory
understanding of “scarcity” issues, and of the actual facts and figures that underlie much of
the analysis. This fact is as a result of the difficulties and subsequently the inability to be able
to model the Nile flows satisfactorily due to the complexity of the geography, the hydrology
and the climate – which are the major drivers of the hydrologic system of the Nile basin.
One of the main features of the Nile basin is its varied geography. The second major feature
of the of the basin is the hydrological diversity of the two major tributaries of the Nile River.
The Blue Nile has a huge seasonality which yields flows mainly concentrated from July to
October. The total flow of Blue Nile (including its tributaries) varies greatly from a high of
15.6 BCM in August to just 0.3 BCM in April. The White Nile’s average monthly maximum
(October) and minimum (February) discharges var y only slightly from 1.4 billion cubic
meters (BCM) to 1.2 BCM, A third major feature of the river system is caused by virtue of
the river’s situation in hot, arid areas whe re evaporation losses are high.
The north–south orientation of the River Nile on the African continent ensures extreme
variability in climate between the extremes of the basin. The Nile Basin receives annually an
average rainfall of about 650 mm, or a total of about 1,900 BCM per year. Long-term mean
annual flow at Aswan is about 85 BCM per year, making the annual runoff coefficient of the
basin to be very small (about 4.5 percent) compared to other basins of the same size in other
parts of the world.
This paper explores the challenges and opportunities of modeling the flows of the Nile.
Description
Keywords
water and conflict, Nile basin, challenges, opportunities
Citation
Mutua, F.M., Mtalo, F. and Bauwens, W., 2005, November. Challenges of Modeling the Flows of the Nile River. In Proceedings of International Conference of UNESCO Flanders Fust Friend/Nile Project Towards A Better Cooperation And The 5th Project Management Meeting And 9th Steering Committee Meeting (pp. 12-15).