Ex-post Evaluation of the Additionality of Clean Development Mechanism Afforestation Projects in Tanzania, Uganda and Meldova
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Date
2014
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Ex-post Evaluation of the Additionality of Clean Development Mechanism Afforestation Projects in Tanzania
Abstract
This study presents findings from a systematic comparative research effort to
investigate the additionality claims of CDM afforestation projects in Tanzania, Uganda
and Moldova. Using what we refer to as an ex-post comparative baseline approach that
accounts for how project financing and background economic conditions evolve over a
CDM project’s implementation and crediting periods, we demonstrate that the projects
in Uganda and Moldova are very likely to be fully additional while only approximately
one-quarter of carbon credits resulting from the Tanzania project are genuine. The
conditions of additionality can change significantly over the course of a CDM project in a
way that undermines project environmental integrity because the CDM rules do not
accommodate changing baseline conditions. Rather, current CDM rules allow initial
baseline conditions to be frozen over a project’s crediting period. We recommend that a
reformed CDM, REDD, NAMA or other new market mechanism adopt some of the
elements of our approach including use of comparative performance benchmarks, an
additionality risk management tool and engaging donors in the development of “ODAbaselines”
for climate mitigation projects which combine carbon finance and
development assistance.
Description
Keywords
Clean Development Mechanism, Additionality, Baselines, Afforestation/Reforestation, Sub-Saharan Africa, former Soviet Union
Citation
Purdon, M. and Lokina, R., 2014. Ex-post evaluation of the additionality of Clean Development Mechanism afforestation projects in Tanzania, Uganda and Moldova (No. 149). Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.