Browsing by Author "Singull, Martin"

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    Projecting Tanzania pension fund system
    (African Journal of Applied Statistics, 2017) Andongwisye, John; Larsson, Tobjorn; Singull, Martin; Mushi, Allen
    A mandatory Tanzania pension fund with a nal salary de ned bene t is analyzed. This fund is a contributory pay-as-you-go de ned bene t pension system which is much a ected by the change in demography. Two kinds of pension bene t, a commuted (at retirement) and a monthly (old age) pension are considered. A decisive factor in the analysis is the increased life expectancy of members of the fund. The projection of the fund's future members and retirees is done using expected mortality rates of working population and expected longevity. The future contributions, bene ts, asset values and liabilities are analyzed. The projection shows that the fund will not be fully sustainable on a long term due to the increase in life expectancy of its members. The contributions will not cover the bene t payouts and the asset value will not fully cover liabilities. Evaluation of some possible reforms of the fund shows that they cannot guarantee a long-term sustainability. Higher returns on asset value will improve the funding ratio, but contributions are still insu cient to cover bene t payouts.